Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 19.972101 21.732313 23.678614 26.010851 28.757791 31.927129 35.916359
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.190888 19.458837 22.148499 25.643951 30.180219 36.047541 44.550822
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 15.259332 17.772168 20.911315 25.259315 31.380339 40.165051 54.850540
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.874390 16.520428 19.964884 24.994070 32.596583 44.630551 68.000371
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.824244 15.544265 19.206437 24.798500 33.806374 49.464980 85.164537
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.861361 14.566254 18.300574 24.202008 34.203013 53.028360 103.025789
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.493373 14.352808 18.431311 25.179911 37.457589 63.500926 153.761022
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.885897 13.737772 17.890595 24.971660 38.492579 69.800142 206.912984
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.431521 13.300679 17.565220 25.061292 40.119498 78.583283 310.606994
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.057773 12.948752 17.330053 25.261632 42.027632 89.642601 543.815051
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.698654 12.589722 17.044967 25.321559 43.645294 101.368433 1182.838335
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.305360 12.151446 16.591108 24.998214 44.279426 110.377254 3488.902995
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.998772 11.831768 16.313587 24.993210 45.764186 125.180783 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.680996 11.476044 15.947713 24.766557 46.631138 138.821047 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.377676 11.126510 15.566817 24.463309 47.226550 152.587576 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.111997 10.822893 15.243816 24.242564 48.021595 169.942372 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.874598 10.552548 14.960302 24.072550 48.943887 191.435711 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.597138 10.204955 14.518813 23.512845 48.507433 201.443899 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.550699 10.229695 14.742311 24.448099 53.322707 287.568755 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.353177 9.996389 14.481471 24.252175 54.174773 333.413543 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.204749 9.837863 14.348163 24.338683 56.139809 423.035994 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.078083 9.709845 14.263048 24.529993 58.633411 579.025156 NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 6.942466 9.560849 14.129082 24.587352 60.646417 805.283345 NaN